20.10.16

Aviation Forecast


In 10 years, the Indian aviation market will be the third largest in the world, overtaking that of the UK, according to an International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecast.But given the infrastructure constraints plaguing the Indian aviation industry , how much of this growth will materialise remains to be seen, aviation experts are saying.
IATA represents 265 airlines comprising 83% of global air traffic. Globally, IATA expects 7.2 billion passengers to fly in 2035, which is almost double of the current 3.8 billion passenger traffic.Its 20-year forecast analysed fundamental drivers of travel demand to identify major air traffic trends for the next 20 years. Passenger demand was predicted by looking at factors like the emerging middle-class, diverging demographics and liberalisation of aviation markets.
But aviation experts reckon infrastructure constraint is a major hurdle as far as Indian aviation is concerned and it can play spoilsport. A prime example of this is the congested Mumbai airport. The sole airline passenger airport of the commercial capital of the country handled 41million passengers last fiscal. The airport's declared design capacity is 40 million passengers per year.
The IATA forecast, too, highlighted the role that in frastructure would play .
The biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region. China will displace the US as the world's largest aviation market (defined by traffic to, from and within the country) around 2029.
India will displace the UK for third place in 2026, while Indonesia enters the top 10 at the expense of Italy. Over the past decade the developing world's share of total passenger traffic has risen from 24% to nearly 40%, and this trend is set to continue. Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2035, for an overall market size of 3.1 billion. Its annual average growth rate of 4.7% will be the second-highest, behind West Asia.

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