A new multi-polar world in the making

The top American intelligence body, US National Intelligence Council, has predicted that over the next two decades there will be a rejig of the world order and the US will lose much of its current clout and the US dollar will become a “first among equals’’. At the same time, India and China could rise to join the US on top of a multipolar world by 2025. The report however cautioned: “Although we believe chances are good that China and India will continue to rise, their ascent is not guaranteed and will require overcoming high economic and social hurdles.’’ This prediction, in the wake of the current financial meltdown in the US, acquires greater signifance. Already the US dollar has lost much of its sheen and the American economy is said to have suffered a setback that will take it at least a couple of years to overcome. According to the intelligence thinktank, China is projected to become the second largest economy and military power and India the fourth largest economy, although the report is silent on just how strong India might be militarily two decades from now. In both countries, rising income disparities as the economies grow rapidly are projected to become a major political and social issue, though not severe enough to force real democracy in China. The report, Global Trends 2005, which is intended to give the incoming Obama administration a pointer to the future, viewed Russia’s prospects as relatively less certain thanks to inadequate investments in its energy sector, high crime rates and corruption in government. It identified Iran, Turkey and Indonesia, apart from India and China, as countries that could rise fast over the next two decades, adding strength to the widely held view that the coming decades could be the Asian decade. While it pointed out that a multipolar world is inherently more prone to conflict than one with a single or two dominant powers, the report suggested that the al-Qaeda threat may dissipate sooner than most people expect. That’s because it felt the organization is fast becoming unpopular in the Islamic world from where it draws sustenance and also where it does most of its killing.
On India, top American intelligence body, US National Intelligence Council (NIC), has said that it does not see religious and ethnic strife going away in a hurry, but added that it would not threaten the country’s unity. It did warn, however, that “India is likely to experience heightened violence and instability in several parts of the country because of the growing reach of the Naxalite movement’’. Among other bad news in the report was the projection that the use of nuclear weapons would become more likely. “The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons,’’ the report said. “The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes,’’ it added. Among the more scary prospects that the report offered was one of a global pandemic, which it said could happen with the emergence of a new, highly transmissible and virulent respiratory infection that does not as yet have any countermeasures.