17.6.08

GDP 2009

India’s real gross domestic product, or GDP, is expected to grow at an impressive 9.5% in the year to 31 March 2009, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, or CMIE, said in its monthly review here.India’s economy is heading towards the fourth straight year of over 9% growth, and like in the past five years, growth this year, too, is expected to be driven by capital investments in the country, CMIE said.According to CMIE’s CapEx Service, projects worth Rs 3.4 trillion are scheduled for commissioning this fiscal year. It would be the highest ever completion of investments in Indian history, CMIE said.India’s GDP started rising by over 8% since the fiscal year that ended on 31 March 2004.
Consider the GDP forecasts issued by the various agencies. We have a very conservative assessment by the World Bank —- 7% —- and, on the other, there is a highly optimistic scenario painted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy — 9.5%.Between these two extremes, there are other predictions, notably by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister at 8%; by the Union finance minister at 8.5% and the Reserve Bank of India, in its annual credit and monetary policy statement at between 8% and 8.5%.
The Economist of London envisages a deceleration in real GDP increase to 7.6% from the preceding year’s 9%, but the economic think tank, National Council of Applied Economic Research, feels that the Indian economy would virtually sustain the growth momentum by registering a pace of 8.5% - 8.9%.The so-called estimates are only an educated guesswork.

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